I really hope I’m wrong…

…but it seems that you can get away with committing crime, with very little risk of ending up in prison (unless you’re a shoplifter, more about this in a following post).

I’ve been looking at the crime data from February 2018 to February 2019. It’s been fun enriching the data and building the metrics I needed, and discovering the limits of working on a laptop as opposed to the big servers that I normally work on.

Fun up to the point where, to verify what the Police Commissioner for the Metropolitan Police said in her article (click here), I wanted to see what the crime outcomes were for one of the more serious categories: Violence and Sexual Offences.

I am using the data from data.police.uk, publicly available.

My data is restricted to four towns in the Herts/Beds/Bucks counties: Milton Keynes, Luton, Dacorum (Hemel Hempstead) and Watford. I have visualised the data on  an Esri map with two layers. The area layer shows the deprivation (darker is more deprived, lighter is less deprived) and the crime point layer shows the crimes where they have occurred.

So here we go:

Alltowns all crime

Violence and Sexual crimes reported. Quite a lot over a year.

Out of these crimes, which were the ones for which no suspect was identified ?

All towns no suspect
Quite a few criminals never got worried…

And then, when was a suspect identified but couldn’t be prosecuted ?

All town, no prosecute
Not sure why – but the criminals could not be prosecuted.

So the final question, for now, is who got sent to prison?

All town, prison
Well… that’s a surprisingly low number.

Not that I’m hell bent on sending people to prison, for various reasons beyond the scope of this post to explain. But still, the offences seem serious enough that you’d hope someone would get caught and punished for it. Yet the data seems to confirm the Commissioner’s assertion that crime solving is woefully low.

And solving this is beyond the scope of this article, and my competence. Although…